If you believe in internal polls, the closest race in Pennsylvania on Election Night could be in Bucks and part of Montgomery County.
An internal poll from the Global Strategy Group (GSG) says that incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is in the battle of his political life as the five-term Republican is in a 46-46% tie with Democratic challenger Bob Harvie.
GSG has polled the district three times and Fitzpatrick’s lead has eroded in each survey. In March, he held a 48-42% advantage over the Bucks County commissioner, while in August, the margin had been reduced to four points at 47-43%.
Independents have swung in the direction of Harvie. After ceding a 12-point difference to Fitzpatrick in August, non-affiliated voters, who make up 18% of the district electorate, are now split 42-42%.
Republicans still hold a +1.5% voter registration advantage in Pennsylvania’s most-purple district, but disenchantment with the Trump administration has those surveyed favoring a generic Democrat for Congress (50-43%) and a majority (53%) wishing to see a Democratic majority in the chamber.
Gov. Josh Shapiro received 54% support from those who responded to the PA-01 survey to just 38% for state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. How long Shapiro’s coattails are could prove instrumental in Harvie’s hopes to unseat Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick continues to break against the Trump administration, vowing Saturday to force a House vote to block Russian oil purchases, challenging the president’s diesel deal with President Vladimir Putin. Will this move curry enough favor with GOP voters to remain in the fold?
The Cook Political Report shifted its analysis on the PA-01 contest to the left from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, reflecting the changing dynamics of the race.
“This race is breaking in Bob Harvie’s direction at the perfect time and the momentum to beat Brian Fitzpatrick is only growing stronger by the day,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Eli Cousin. “Bucks and Montgomery County voters are seeing that a decade in Washington has changed Fitzpatrick, and it’s time to send someone different who will fight the corruption that is costing Pennsylvanians.”
Pennsylvania Democratic leaders are also taking notice of how the race appears to be tightening. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) campaigned alongside Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-04) and Shapiro on Saturday on Harvie’s behalf.
“We can pretty much win back the House in this state,” Jeffries said. “The commonwealth is a big swing state, and Bucks County is a big swing county,” he said.
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 1,032 likely 2026 General Election voters in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District on October 1-8, 2026. The survey has a margin of error of +/-3.1%. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic, political, and demographic divisions of the population of likely general election voters are properly represented.
